https://abelgvidal.com/tags/cognitive-bias/Recent content in Cognitive Bias on Abel G. VidalHugoenMon, 20 Jan 2025 20:03:54 +0100https://abelgvidal.com/posts/optionalrandom/Mon, 20 Jan 2025 20:03:54 +0100https://abelgvidal.com/posts/optionalrandom/<p>In her book &ldquo;Randomness,&rdquo; Deborah Bennett presents an example that illustrates how bad we are at calculating probabilities, even highly trained professionals. A group of doctors received this question:</p> <blockquote> <p>The test of a disease has a 5% false positive rate. The disease affects 1 in 1000 people in the population. People are tested randomly, whether they are suspected to be sick or not. A particular patient&rsquo;s test is positive. What is the probability that this patient actually has the disease?</p>